China’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in March, falling to $51.13 billion from $213.62 billion in February, as imports rose on stronger demand for items such as AI chips and infrastructure-related goods, while exports declined. Although weaker exports have largely been attributed to seasonal distortions — compounded by recent disruption linked to the Iran conflict affecting shipments — the rise in imports points to encouraging signs of recovering consumer demand. This is a key objective for Beijing as it seeks to revive domestic spending following the COVID pandemic and the property market crisis. While the headline trade figures may appear weak, the underlying data offers some encouraging signs and could be further supported by the marginal GDP growth expected to be announced next week
In the United States, producer prices rose 0.5% in March, matching February’s increase. While the latest figures are only beginning to capture the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict, they already point to rising energy costs, partly offset by unchanged services prices. Even so, the reading was benign enough to reassure investors that inflationary pressures are not yet accelerating uncontrollably. This helped fuel a rebound in U.S. equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 1%, the Nasdaq climbing nearly 1.8%, and the Dow Jones rising 0.5%. The data has also reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to rush into further monetary tightening, lending additional support to investor sentiment.
Despite President Trump’s claim that no vessels had passed through the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, conflicting reports indicate that at least four Iran-linked ships crossed the strait on Tuesday. Oil prices, which surged above $100 per barrel on Monday after the blockade was imposed, retreated as this news and combined with the President’s suggestion that peace talks could resume later this week, eased immediate supply concerns. Brent crude fell back to $95.54 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said last month that it would release 400 million barrels of oil to help alleviate supply pressures – a significant intervention that yet represents only around 20% of its total stockpile.
Markets have also started to turn their attention to earning’s season. Goldman Sachs kicked off things on Monday, reporting rising profits in the first quarter following increases in mergers and acquisitions. Traders are also expecting reporting from Netflix, JP Morgan and Bank of America.
Still to come this week we also have China’s retail sales and unemployment rate and the UK’s GDP.
Nicola Tune, Portfolio Specialist
