A relatively quiet week on the economic calendar had investors looking mainly to what was coming out of the US to make their next moves.
On Monday, President Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran following 12 days of conflict, a statement later confirmed by the Israeli Prime Minister. Although there have since been allegations of Iranian breaches, other reports indicate the ceasefire largely held through Tuesday. While any conflict involving loss of life is undeniably tragic, financial markets responded positively to the announcement and investor sentiment was boosted by the uneasy truce between the two sides. Markets appeared to interpret the ceasefire not as a resolution, but as a welcome de-escalation in a region where tensions often oscillate between flare-ups and temporary calm. Oil prices fell 6% following the news, with Brent Crude Oil pricing in at $67.14 per barrel – reflecting eased supply concerns and a broader sense of relief.
And it seems like tariff uncertainty is still at the forefront of US consumers’ minds. On Tuesday, U.S. consumer confidence was shown to have declined in June, with the Conference Board reporting a drop to 93.0, down from 98.4 in May. The decline was broad-based, affecting both consumers’ views of current conditions and future expectations. This comes despite signs of resilience in the U.S. economy, including a still relatively tight labour market and moderate wage growth.
The latter point was addressed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in remarks delivered on Tuesday. Ignoring Trump’s criticism of him as “Mr. Too Late,” Powell emphasised that although the economy is showing signs of strength, the Fed must maintain a data-dependent, wait-and-see approach until the full impact of Trump’s tariffs becomes materially evident in the broader economy. He also indicated that key interest rates would remain on hold for the time being.
Still to come this week we have Japan’s unemployment rate, Tokyo CPI, Eurozone sentiment index and US PCE data.
