We have had an uneventful start to the week as global equity markets wait for Friday’s (2 July 2021) US employment data.
While the US economy is recovering strongly, the US employment market has not only lagged, but the data readings have recently disappointed. For example, April showed only 278,000 jobs were added versus expectations of 1m, while March’s gains were revised downwards by 131,000 jobs and May’s reading came in 116,000 below consensus estimates.
However, we believe that these disappointing data readings have been caused by labour supply rather than a lack of job openings – and given US unemployment benefits are starting to end, coupled with the easing of lockdown restrictions, we are expecting that Friday’s data reading will show a large gain in jobs as Americans, need and can, start to re-enter the labour force.
Investment Management Team